Guided by common values, Covid Act Now is a multidisciplinary team of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders working to provide disease intelligence and data analysis on COVID in the U.S.
We published the first version of our model on March 20. Over 10 million Americans have used the model since. We’ve engaged with dozens of federal, state, and local government officials, including the U.S. military and White House, to assist with response planning.
The Covid Act Now model is an SEIR model (pronounced “S-E-I-R,” not as a word). SEIR models are widely used by epidemiologists to understand and forecast infectious diseases in both research and practical settings. Our model is adapted from a model originally developed and built by Dr. Alison Hill, a research fellow at Harvard’s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics.
An SEIR model attempts to predict how a disease will evolve in a population. An SEIR model categorizes people in one of various states and models how people progress through those states. Susceptible (S) individuals may become exposed (E) to the virus, then infected (I) at varying levels of disease severity. Infected individuals then either recover (R) or die (D).
|Project name||Summary||Status||Social impact area|
|Covid Response Simulator // Scenario Planning for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)||The COVID Response Simulator is a localized, customizable version of the public Covid Act Now (CAN) model. With it, you can take a powerful SEIR epidemiology model and customize it for your county to help plan your response to COVID. The inputs and assumptions in the simulator are modifiable and can be changed to reflect your local realities. In addition, you can project the impact of specific Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for your county, such as closing schools, restricting business activities, and canceling large events. Based on your inputs, the simulator generates data and graphs illustrating COVID forecasts with and without these NPIs, including estimated case numbers and hospitalizations.||In scoping phase||
Years in operation: less than 1 year
Yearly budget: <$100K
Geographical scope: Country
912a York Street
San Francisco, CA 94110
United States of America
Phone number: None